RESULTS:
Alcohol/cigarettes followed by marijuana was the most common sequence. NMPO or cocaine use after marijuana, and heroin use after NMPO or cocaine, differed by generation. Among successively younger generations, NMPO after marijuana and heroin after NMPO increased. Millennials were more likely to initiate NMPO than cocaine after marijuana; Generation X and Baby Boomers were less likely (odds ratios = 1.4;0.3;0.2). Millennials were more likely than Generation X and Baby Boomers to use heroin after NMPO (hazards ratios = 7.1;3.4;2.5). In each generation, heroin users were far more likely to start heroin after both NMPO and cocaine than either alone. Sequences were similar by gender. Fewer paths were significant among African-Americans.
CONCLUSIONS:
NMPOs play a more prominent role in drug initiation sequences among Millennials than prior generations. Among Millennials, NMPO use is more likely than cocaine to follow marijuana use. In all generations, transition to heroin from NMPO significantly occurs only when both NMPO and cocaine have been used. Delineation of drug sequences suggests optimal points in development for prevention and treatment efforts.
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